An imaginary future

I read recently that in Pakistan, about 20% of the population is hungry -- presumably as defined by the UN, which is less than 1800 calories/day for an adult. The population growth rate is is 1.99% (according to google just now). That implies that they'll add on the order of 3 million people a year (starting from 150 million, again from google).

It is reasonable to think that peak oil happened last year & that peak food will happen at about the same time. In all probability, as the world population grows, richer countries (and people) will get more food while poorer countries get less.

Thus, as a first approximation (and this post is in hugely round numbers) let us assume that as the population of Pakistan grows over the next few years, the amount of food available to the country stays constant. Also, the new people get fed something, which takes food away from people already there. Another wild approximation -- each new person added means that an existing one moves from adequate nutrition to being underfed.

By that logic, Pakistan will add 15 million people in the next 5 years and another 15 million people will move to being underfed, taking the percent of the population that are hungry to about 36% (60 million out of 165 million).

When enough of the population is malnourished, society is likely to become unstable. The options are famine, civil war or external war or some combination of these. The most politically popular is likely to be external war, by the logic that someone is going to die, but better them than us.

What are Pakistan's options for external war? Going against India may be attractive, but perhaps suicidal. Also, India is crowded with people, as is China. There isn't a lot of room for Pakistanis to move in and set up shop. Afghanistan is already seen as part of themselves. Iran has lots of people and is ethnically Persian, plus it's on the bad side of the US - a possiblity. Then there are the northern 'stans ... Tajikstan, Kyrgystan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhastan. These areas are lightly settled and the al Quada doctrine says they should be "liberated". The problem, of course, is that Russia would object.

Suppose they do decide to go north. They cut a deal with India, that Pakistan will quit fighting with India over Kashmir if India will support them in moving against the central Asian states. They cut a deal with China, that it can have part of Russia and/or Kazakhastan if China helps them out against Russia.

So, now there is Pakistan, India & China, moving into central Asia. Russia objects & the US and Europe back them up. Saudia Arabia backs the US and the government is overthrown, then the new one comes in on the Asian side (giving Asia lots of oil at the expense of the west). Africa & the rest of Asia, except Japan & Australia (western side) come in one the Asian side. It's the West against the East ...