Monday, November 27, 2006

Assumptions

I'm working on a very simple set of assumptions here:


  1. The sustainable human population with any technology we have or are likely to develop in the next 50 years or so (aka, carrying capacity) is about 2 to 4 billion people.
  2. We have as many people on the planet as we do because we are running in overshoot mode and using up resources faster than they can be replenished.
  3. We have perhaps 5 to 50 years before the situation starts to come unglued at a global level. [There is a good argument that it is already coming unglued in some regions.]


If these things are true, I think it about certain that we are in for "interesting" times.

Sunday, November 26, 2006

Risk factors

Here are some of the things that I think are big problems:


  • Overpopulation
  • Running out of resources
  • Peak oil
  • Global warming
  • Coming food shortages
  • Lack of fresh water
  • Trashing the oceanic ecosystems
  • Trashing land based ecosystems
  • Economic failure
  • The Islamic insurgency


There may be others I've heard of, but these are the big ones. Obviously, some of the items encompass others -- lots of people only becomes overpopulation when there aren't enough resources to support them.

The ones that I think are likely to cause problems soon are

  • Economic failure
  • The Islamic insurgency
  • Peak oil
  • Lack of fresh water
  • Global warming


Any one of them by itself is possibly manageable. All of them together is a bit much. Also, they can interact to exacerbate the strength of any one. For example:

  • Using fresh water for residences or business takes it from agriculture, thus reducing the amount of food that can be grown.
  • Global warming reduces crop yields.
  • Insurgent attacks destroy infrastructure and inhibit business.
  • The obvious alternative to oil is coal, which produces greenhouse gasses.


I don't claim that everything is bad and getting worse, but there are big challenges.

Saturday, November 25, 2006

The last five years of war

In the Nov 27 issue of Newsweek Fareed Zakaria tells us:
Consider a paradox: over the past five years, political turmoil has swept the world. It began with the attacks of 9/11, followed by bombings in Bali, Casablanca, Istanbul, Madrid and London. There have been two major American-led wars, in Afghanistan and Iraq, which are ongoing, protracted, expensive and increasingly destabilizing. Add to this the war between Israel and Lebanon, deadlock in Palestine, Iran's bid for regional supremacy, North Korea's nuclear test and Russia's growing clashes with some of its neighbors.


This strengthens the point that Michael Schurer made in Imperial Hubris, that the "Islamic insurgency" is attacking the west and that Hammes made in The Sling and the Stone about the effectiveness of what he calls 4th generational warfare.

What I come away with from Zakaria's article is that the we are under attack, but we haven't yet woken up to the fact. The really interesting question is how to fight back. Just claiming that we need to defeat the insurgency is only the tip of the iceberg.

In the Newsweek article, Zakaria goes on to say:

There is no way to turn off this global economy, nor should one try. Every previous expansion of global capitalism has led to greater prosperity across the world. The story of the past 100 years is one of an ever-expanding pie.

Perhaps. If I remember correctly what I read (if not where), the time before what is now called WWI was an era of unprecedented globalization. It was also, as we now know, a prequel to a time of unprecedented destruction.

Today we have tools to destroy humanity that were not dreamed of in 1914. If we survive this current round of stresses, perhaps we shall find ourselves partaking of an ever-expanding pie. I see no reason to take it for granted however.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006

Why the name?

I want to put up a blog to talk about my view of the world. Imaging some wheel spinning here, while I think of a name.

Got it -- toutlemonde. All the world, cute, if maybe just a tiny bit pretentions.

Also -- taken. Ooops

So I went surfing around wikipedia. Classical history sounds good. Oh, look, the Roman Forum. I'll name it Forum_Romanum that sounds good -- but uh, taken.

Bother.

Forum_Magnum -- Nope.

Just Forum -- no hope.

But yanno, there are the temples -- how about Temple_of_Saturn. Bingo, grab while the grabbing is good.

Saturn in astrology is where one encounters reality or limitations. This world view of mine is all full of dreary stuff. Perfect. Now if only the world were perfect ...